Bitcoin (BTC) sees an erratic start to a new week and a new month after its first monthly close of over $60,000 – what next?
With the much-anticipated Uptober complete, bulls in November are hoping to secure the next stage of what they’ve been hoping for – and sometimes promising – as an unparalleled rally in the price of Bitcoin.
Time changes, and so do predictions. There may be close to $100,000 in BTC/USD in stock this month, but it could also drop to close to $50,000.
With all to play with and strong buyer support on top of the $50,000 stock, Cointelegraph is looking for what could help shape bitcoin’s price action over the next week.
October 2021 will be the best month since 2020
Whatever happens next, market participants are in a festive mood this week as Bitcoin experiences its highest monthly close in history.
Not just $60,000, but $61,000 is the target now for November.
However, Bitcoin is not only for short periods of time, and the end of Sunday was met with a significant bearish volatility – a trip to $59,500 before another surprise topped $62,000 a few hours later.
Fans of PlanB’s worst predictions, who are demanding at least $63,000 by the end of October, may be a little nervous.
Although it is still somewhat on the right track, for the chain to remain historically accurate, there should be $98,000 on the table by the end of this month.
But for PlanB itself, the results have been more than satisfactory.
“Yes, Bitcoin cannot close above $63,000 this month,” Cointelegraph member Michael van de Poppe added about the situation.
“But @ $100 trillion, stocks to flow are doing a lot better than your trading, so I wouldn’t fry it at all. Bitcoin at $61k is good and close enough.”
After adjusting from the overnight low, BTC/USD is trading at $62,000. Thus, October was the best month since December 2020 when the return was only 40%.
BTC/USD monthly candlestick chart (bit stamp). Source: TradingView
Difficulty levels up to eight in a row
Those looking for something that is already in the top position just need to research the basics of the Bitcoin network.
This week, the difficulty will lead to the eighth positive adjustment in a row, which has not happened since 2018.
Reflecting the increasing competition in mining, mining difficulty is now almost making up for the losses inevitably incurred after China forced miners to give up tools in May.
The difficulty level rose to 21.89 trillion this week, just over 3 trillion below the all-time high.
Hashrate – a measure of computing power dedicated to mining – says the same thing.
Estimates show that although it is impossible to “measure” definitively, the hash rate still tends to be all-time highs.
Raw data tends to increase and decrease, and different estimates often lead to significantly different readings. However, the average weekly hash rate is now around 159 EH/s, which is closer to the April record of 180 EH/s than ever before.
Graph of average bitcoin hash rate over 7 days. Source: Blockchain.com
Scammers keep gathering
September provided a great opportunity for bitcoin buyers in the deflationary period, and October was not without short withdrawals either.
Did you buy a dive? In this case, you have joined the group of ordinary scammers whose conviction only increased in October.
As noted in a study by major exchange Kraken last week, high prices and record highs of $67,100 failed to entice bitcoin holders to sell bitcoin.
“Remarkably, while long-term owners were not worried about the rally last month and used it as an opportunity to continue accumulating, this trend has not changed, despite the significant drop in price to new highs around $67,000,” the researchers said. is over.
“In other words, the supply shock that holders of long-term contracts bought last month only worsened this month.”
They add that it is these institutions, not short-term speculators, that determine price movements in the last quarter of this year.
This mirrors previous analyzes, notably by analyst Willie Wu, who shows that so-called “scammers of last resort” or “Rick Astley” investors remain committed to their investments. Among the long-term owners of 2020 are the miners themselves.
“Since 2020, miners have been the HODLers (and buyers) of BTC, and this is a drastic change in behavior,” Wu noted this weekend.