The geopolitical news flow is likely to lead to choppy movements in Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins over the next few days. News that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the nuclear deterrent to be put on high alert can be seen as negative, but reports of talks between the warring nations could be positive as it gives hope for an end to the conflict.
The cryptocurrency community came into the spotlight when the Ukrainian government requested assistance and asked for cryptocurrency donations. Some people on social media have reported that their Ukrainian credit cards have stopped working and they are unable to withdraw money from their banks. They stressed that cryptocurrency is the only money they have left.
Daily view of cryptocurrency market data. Source: Coin360
While some analysts are speculating that Bitcoin may have bottomed out, Cointelegraph contributor Marcel Beichmann warned that derivative data remains uncertain. Likewise, the Ethereum futures data did not paint a very optimistic picture.
The immediate conduct of the award will depend on the development of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Let’s examine the lists of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that can improve the news of a peaceful solution to the ongoing conflict.
Bitcoin / US Dollar
Bitcoin’s pullback from the February 24 low at $34322 hit the February 26 moving averages as bears offer strong resistance. However, the small positive is that the bulls haven’t lost much ground.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Trading View
The moving averages are flattening and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trying to rise to the middle, which indicates the return of the bulls. If the bulls keep the price above the moving averages, BTC/USDT may rise to the higher resistance level at $45,821. This level is likely to attract strong sales from bears.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price deviates from the moving averages, the pair could consolidate between $39,600 and $36,250 in a matter of days. A break and close through this support could open the doors to a possible drop as high as $32,900.
BTC/USDT on the 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View
The 4-hour chart shows that the price is trading in a narrow range from $38,200 to $39,600. An exponential rise of a 20-exponential moving average and the RSI just above its midpoint indicates a marginal buying advantage.
A break and close above $39,600 could push the price to $41,000 and then $42,000. In this area, bears are likely to fight back hard.
If the price deviates from this area, but does not fall below $39,600, then this means that the mood has changed from selling on the rise to buying on the dip. This may increase the chances of the uptrend continuing.
On the contrary, a breakout and a close below $38,200 would indicate strong sales around $39,600. After that, the pair may decline to $36,250.
Moon / USDT
Terra LUNA token gained bullish momentum after the breakout and closing above the downtrend line. Strong buying pushed the price above the smaller resistance of $70 on February 25.
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: Trading View
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, but the RSI is close to the overbought zone. This suggests that the bulls have the advantage, but LUNA/USDT may see a slight correction or consolidation in the short term.
On the other hand, the bulls are more likely to defend the breakout level of $70 and below the 20-day moving average ($60). If the price jumps outside the support level, the pair could continue rising to $90, where the bears could once again offer strong resistance. This uptrend will be canceled on pause and closed out during the 20 day moving average.
LUNA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View
The 4 hours chart shows that the pair has been trading between $47 and $60 for several days. A breakout and a close above $60 signal the start of a new possible move higher. Slopes of 20-EMA and RSI are in positive territory, indicating buyers advantage.
If the bulls defend the 20-EMA, the trend is likely to continue. The pair could then rise above $80 before climbing to an upper resistance zone between $84 and $87. Conversely, if the price reverses and falls below $70, the pair may drop to $64.
