After reports of US President Donald Trump testing positive for COVID-19, forecast markets have seen (perhaps expected) an influx of activity.
The PredictIt Central Market, operated by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, is one of the bleakest prospects to catch the eye.
When asked the question “Will Donald Trump reach his first term?” Originally, expectations were designed as a measure of the likelihood that the president will be charged and stepped down.
However, interest rose after news of a close aide to the president, Hope Hicks, who tested positive for the virus and later tested the president. The daily volume jumped from an average of around $ 6,000 over a seven-day period to more than $ 37,000.
Much of this has to be published in the “no” answer as the price of “yes” fell $ 0.04 to $ 0.82.
After positive news of the presidential test tomorrow, the “Yes” price fell from $ 0.04 to $ 0.78. Less than a week ago, the price was “yes” $ 0.90.
For the sake of clarity, the specific rules of the forecast market state the following: “The temporary deficit resulting from the temporary transfer of power to the acting president has nothing to do with the outcome of this market.”
Since he is no longer under threat of indictment, this means that forecasters are already betting on the possibility of Trump’s death.
As a technically overweight man in the 1970s, Trump is definitely in the high risk category. He and his wife Melania are currently under quarantine at the White House and are suspending their campaign.