Bitcoin (BTC) could reach its current target price of $98,000, but this could be the peak of the cycle, according to new research.
In its October 2021 market review and forecast, the major US stock exchange, Kraken, said that Bitcoin should reach around $96,000 if this quarter is to repeat its recent bullish rally.
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When BTC price forecast at $300,000, new Kraken analysis suggests that if BTC/USD copies the 2017 numbers, the peak of this cycle could remain below $100,000.
Although the “worst case” closing price for November was $98,000, bitcoin could peak around that level instead.
At the current pace, Q4 is most similar to Q4 of 2017 with a correlation of 0.88. Notably, Q4 2017 remains the third best Q4 Bitcoin ever with a +220% return,” Kraken wrote.
“Assuming BTC continues to follow in Q4 2017, we can expect a higher BTC rally by the end of the month. For some reason, +220% in Q4 2021 means a price of $96,355 per bitcoin.”
A comparative table of bitcoin’s profitability for the fourth quarter. source: kraken
The report also notes that historically November has tended to be the most volatile, with the highest monthly returns.
Separate forecasts were for Bollinger Bands and Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI).
He added, “Historically, the peaks of the BTC cycle have coincided with BTC reaching both the upper Bollinger bands and the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 96.”
The RSI is currently at 71.7, so there is room for it to rise in line with the spot price momentum. The account is responsible for some of the higher bitcoin price predictions for this cycle, Cointelegraph reports.
The Upper Bollinger Band is currently priced at around $112,000.
Bitcoin Upper Bollinger Band, 1-month RSI against BTC/USD chart. source: kraken
The $1 trillion asset class is not going anywhere
If the current Bitcoin movement stops at significant resistance around $70,000, the decline could cost the bulls as little as 20%.
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Looking at the costs of each bitcoin transfer, analyst Willy Wu concluded that the $50,000-$60,000 region is more than enough to support it.
“Bitcoin as a $1 trillion asset class. IMO is now closed; it’s hard to see it trending below that territory,” a portion of his comments read on Monday, along with data from chain analyst firm Glassnode.