It may not even come close to the “worst case” of November, but as historical data shows, Bitcoin clearly has upside potential.

Bitcoin (BTC) could reach the now popular $98,000 target, but that could end the top of the cycle, new research claims.

In its October 2021 Market Outlook and Forecasts, major US exchange Kraken stated that Bitcoin should reach around $96,000 if the last bull run repeats this quarter.

Bitcoin copycat could be worth below $100,000
As BTC price predictions hit $300,000, new Kraken analysis suggests that if BTC/USD repeats its 2017 performance, the top of this cycle could still end below $100,000.

While calls for a “worst-case” close in November of $98,000 pile up, Bitcoin could instead top out around that level.

“At current rates, Q4 is most similar to Q4 2017 with a correlation of 0.88. Of note, Q4 2017 was the third best Q4 in bitcoin history with +220% returns,” Kraken wrote.

“Assuming that BTC continues to follow in the footsteps of the fourth quarter of 2017, we can expect BTC to rise even more towards the end of the month. In some cases, a 220% gain in the fourth quarter of 2021 would translate into a BTC price of $96,355.”

Bitcoin Q4 returns comparison table. Source: Kraken
The report also notes that November has historically been more volatile, generating the highest monthly returns.

A separate forecast concerns the Bollinger Bands and the Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI).

“Historically, BTC’s cycle tops have coincided with BTC reaching both its upper Bollinger Band and the 1-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 96,” he added.

The RSI is currently at 71.7 so it has room for growth in line with spot price action. As reported by Cointelegraph, this metric is responsible for some of the higher BTC price predictions for this cycle.

Meanwhile, the upper Bollinger Band is currently showing a value near $112,000.

Upper Bollinger Band Bitcoin: 1-month RSI chart against BTC/USD. Source: Kraken
The $1 trillion asset class isn’t going anywhere
If Bitcoin’s current rally halts at significant resistance around $70,000, a pullback could cost bulls no more than 20%.

Read also: “Resistance Is Useless” – 5 Bitcoin Facts to Consider This Week

Looking at the value at which each bitcoin changed hands, analyst Willy Wu concluded that the $50,000 to $60,000 zone was more than enough to support.

“Bitcoin as a $1 trillion asset class is now cemented IMO; It is hard to imagine it falling below this zone,” some of his comments on Monday said, along with data from network analytics firm Glassnode.

Source: CoinTelegraph

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