Bitcoin (BTC) has gone through four market cycles since its inception in 2009, from a low to a new high. Cycles ranged from over 600 days to around 1050 days. The last period has just passed 300 days, which indicates that it could last from 3 to 12 months.
If the Bitcoin price remains stable for months to a year, it can do two things. First, it could reinforce the groundwork for the next explosive eruption between 2016 and 2017. Second, it could cause cryptocurrencies or other digital currencies to reach new heights, as some investors expect.
Why is Bitcoin’s slow bullish loop so critical at this point
Bitcoin was priced at only $ 3,596 at BitMEX on March 13th. In six months, Bitcoin’s price rose 220%, beating most traditional assets and indices, including gold.
Bitcoin’s sharp vertical rally could increase the chances of whales – or large individual Bitcoin owners – earning a profit. In this case, the over-financing of the futures market due to successive liquidations could lead to a significant downturn.
However, if BTC bounces back gradually over time and remains above the USD 10,000 support level, it could lead to a more sustainable and long-term bullish cycle. Dan Tibeiro, founding partner of 10% Holdings, said:
“Be prepared to be patient with Bitcoin. Each bullish cycle takes longer and is less extreme as the absolute value of the dollar becomes much greater. It may take another 6 to 12 months before the price collapses. It shouldn’t be obscenely higher as the final price point. Scammers are happy.” . ”
For example, the last two rounds have happened around the Bitcoin block reward in half. The second half in Bitcoin’s history happened in July 2016. BTC’s bullish cycle reached its peak 17 months later in December 2017.
If Bitcoin follows a similar trend to its half-cycle after 2016, it could see a strong uptrend in late 2021. This would also fit perfectly with the stock-to-flow model, indicating that the price of BTC could reach six-digit levels at Some point next year.
What do retailers see in the near future?
In the short term, some traders are expecting the bitcoin price to consolidate over a longer period of time. A trader under a pseudonym “BIg Chronis” said that the higher timeframe charts are indicating longer sideways price action.
“Stabilizing the daily bullish crossover is ideal for the bulls. The sideways price action can parallel that without surpassing them, while the higher timeframe indicators can moderate their decline … I expect the relative sideways movements to continue for a longer period of time.”
Michael Van de Pope, a full-time trader on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, said the session is likely to be longer than the previous one. He said:
“The fun part is that this cycle will probably take longer than the previous cycle. However, it’s going to be even crazier than before. Love this.”
Usually, Bitcoin’s longer stability period has led to the Altcoin market growing strongly. Kelvin Koh, partner in cryptocurrency fund in Asia, Spartan Black, hinted that this could boost sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.