The long-awaited day for cryptocurrency traders has arrived. At the opening bell on October 19, ProShares’ Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading fund is set to launch, and analysts expect additional ETFs to launch over the next week.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the early morning bear attempt to push the price below $60,000 has been well defended by traders, and at the time of writing there is a tug of war in the $61,000-$62,000 region.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
While many have speculated that the launch of an ETF is the fuel needed to push BTC to the $100,000 mark, not all analysts agree, and some warn that this could be another “rumour and sell-off” event.
Higher lower would be ‘normal’ price action
One trader who wasn’t quite as fond of the idea of a BTC futures ETF is Twitter user with the pseudonym Cry me a $COIN, who posted the following tweet suggesting that the recent price action of BTC is just part of a normal price cycle.
According to the price path shown in the above chart, there is a possibility that Bitcoin will break below $68,000 in the next few months before heading lower to create a higher low near $46,000.
The same sentiment was expressed by Ryan Canttering Clark, who suggested that so far, “trade has been a ‘long-term approval of the ETF’ and we are here, so what in the short-term makes us so much higher?”
“Everyone knows where this is going, so I think in the short term we will sink even deeper.”
FOMO buyers beware
A deeper analysis of what could happen next was provided by David Lifchitz, ExoAlpha Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer. Lifchitz suggested that a slight pullback might be possible, “especially after a strong rally from $40,000 just two weeks ago,” which translates to a 50% increase in BTC.
While Lifchitz suggested that “the average range definitely looks higher,” the analyst offered a word of caution to potential buyers, saying: “BTC-based CME futures ETFs will underperform Bitcoin spot price due to futures roll costs Persistent…”
According to Lifchitz, professional traders will likely continue to use Bitcoin CME futures or crypto derivatives exchanges for their trading needs, while “long-time crypto investors are well-equipped to trade live and store Bitcoin spot.”
“So these ETFs are likely to be an easy access to Bitcoin for inexperienced retail investors with their broker accounts, who will not get the full return on Bitcoin after all fees are taken into account. These ETFs will also provide opportunities arbitrage for smart traders.” Wall Street at its best.
Related: Bitcoin RSI Strength Indicates BTC Price Still Far From Round Top
90K USD BTC if the classic cup and handle are formed
The final scenario to look for was introduced by Twitter user alias Nunya Bizniz, who posted the following tweet detailing a bullish scenario for Bitcoin price action.
As shown in the provided chart, the analyst suggested that Bitcoin price has the potential to pull back to the $53,000 support in the near term before resuming its upward trend.
The trader believes that after the price pulls back to touch the major support, BTC could push up to $98,000.
BTC/USD one day chart. Source: Twitter
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at $2.463 trillion, and the bitcoin dominance rate is 47.3%.