In February, there was a marked shift between inflation and news from the US Federal Reserve, followed by news of the conflict in Eastern Europe, which completely overshadowed earlier concerns about economic health. What is happening in Ukraine causes an immediate drop in prices at the market level. Bitcoin (BTC) is down significantly by 11% over the 16-hour period, while most altcoins are down 20% or more.
Initially, the war was expected to have a negative impact on cryptocurrency prices, which happened in a short time. But as concerns spread, prices rose rapidly.
But the small sample size in recent days suggests that there is reason to believe that the crisis could have a positive impact on bitcoin and altcoins, as happened in March 2020 when awareness of COVID prevailed.
Fear replaced mood, but waned after the price hike.
Sentiments are often a good measure of what the commercial audience expects in the future. Over the past month, audience sentiment as a leading indicator has been very effective.
At the end of the Federal Reserve’s inflation discussions in early February, cryptocurrency prices surged, peaking in the middle of the month as Bitcoin breached the $45,000 mark before a sharp correction. Research and development was a major issue when the war broke out in late February, but sentiment improved as prices quickly recovered, leading many to speculate that the price drop was nothing more than a “dead cat recovery.”
Traders are becoming somewhat bullish about Bitcoin again. It is important to note that cryptocurrencies can be particularly volatile as they are currently clinging to the rapid development of the European crisis.
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The case for one of Bitcoin’s extremes over the past month has been largely demonstrated by volatility. Yes, there have been many projects like Terra (LUNA), XRP and Shiba Inu (SHIB), among many others, that have surpassed BTC in percentage of realized market capitalization.
But Bitcoin’s ability to fetch relatively unstable chips compared to nearly all of its cryptocurrency peers, as well as higher redemption fees over part of the past month, is the reason why bitcoin traders have performed so well.
The purchasing power of high-end teasers has increased
Stable currencies like Tether (USDT) – especially with how large companies hoard or sell their assets – are increasingly becoming a good leader in this regard.
There has been a steady increase in the share of USDT held by publications worth between $10,000 and $1 million, which already crossed $1 billion in February. Usually the maximum amount is 1 million, because beyond this limit you can find many exchange addresses that do not count. But based on what we have seen, there is clear evidence that sharks and whales have a much greater willingness of USDT to buy cryptocurrency than they did last month.
Bitcoin whales seem to follow a simple bear/decade pattern
By hitting a low monthly rate on the day the war was declared, bitcoin whales saved some money and remained stable with their total holdings. Having reached the lowest level of supply in a month on the day the war was declared, they had accumulated quite a bit and since then they have remained at the level of their cumulative reserves.
Any indication that this core group is showing a significant backlog would be a good sign that R&D is disappearing from the core stakeholder group, which could start or stop the upward race at any time.
NVT still in bullish territory
The Santiment Network model measures the value-to-transaction (NVT) ratio of a unique amount of BTC traded on the network, then calculates whether that result is higher, equal to, or less than the expected trading volume to justify the current market. . Bitcoin value.
At the moment, the number of unique BTC circulating on his private network looks very promising. Since October 2021, this pattern has been a semi-bullish signal that interest in bitcoin justifies a return to normal market capitalization at a slightly higher level than it is now. March has just started, but this is a good start with a bullish signal for a very small sample size for the days on record.
Bitcoin is still public
The cumulative supply of bitcoin on exchanges continued its encouraging decline to the bottom, reaching 10.76%. This is the lowest bid for Bitcoin on exchanges since November 2018. Overall, this continued decline indicates lower risks for a future sale.