Looking at the Bitcoin (BTC) chart on a weekly or daily basis, it is clear that the price of BTC is gradually falling to an all-time low of $ 69,000.
Interestingly, prices peaked on November 10, when the US announced that inflation had reached a 30-year high, but the mood quickly changed following fears that China-based real estate developer Evergrande would not repay its debt. This seems to have affected the broader market structure.
Investors are still afraid of Staplecoin regulation
This initial phase revision was quickly followed by relentless pressure from regulators and policymakers on Staplecoin providers. First, VanEck’s Bitcoin trading capital was rejected by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in November.
On December 14, the US Senate Banking, Housing and Civil Affairs Committee conducted an inquiry into consumer protection and risk-centered staplecoins, and on December 17, the US Financial Stability Oversight Board expressed its concern about stable bitcoin. And other digital assets. . “The Council recommends that state and federal regulators review current regulations and tools that can be applied to digital data,” the report said.
The decline in investor sentiment was reflected in CME’s premium on Bitcoin futures. This measurement measures the difference between the long-term future and the current spot price in normal markets.
If this indicator disappears or turns negative, it is a worrying red flag. This condition is also called relief and indicates that there is a downward trend.
BTC CME 2-month premium against Coinbase / USD. Source: TradingView
These standard monthly contracts are often traded at a small premium, meaning sellers ask for more money to delay settlement. Futures contracts are to be traded in healthy markets at a premium of 0.5-2% per annum, also known as contango.
Note that after December 9, the index fell below the “neutral” level, with Bitcoin trading at $ 49,000. This shows that institutional investors are showing distrust, however there is still no downward trend.
Leading traders are increasing their betting
Data provided by the stock market underscore the clear position of traders from long to short. By analyzing the position of each client in fixed term and futures contracts, it is possible to better understand whether professional traders are positive or not.
There may be occasional differences in methods between different exchanges, so visitors should notice changes rather than integers.
Leading traders are changing the long-term exchange rate of Bitcoin. Source: Coinglas
Despite a 19% correction in Bitcoin since December 3, the top traders in Binance, Huobi and OKEx have increased their foreign demand. More precisely, Binance is the only stock market that has seen a moderate fall in the long-term ratio of leading traders. The percentage has moved from 1.09 to 1.03. However, this result was higher than what was offset by OKEx investors, who rose from 1.51 to 2.91 in two weeks.
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The lack of premium on CME’s two-month futures contracts should not be considered a “red alert” because Bitcoin is currently experiencing resistance at $ 46,000, its lowest daily expiration since October. Moreover, the leading derivative traders have long increased their positions. Despite the fall in prices.
Regulatory pressure is unlikely to increase in the short term, but at the same time, the US government will do little to curb Staplecoin issues and trade. These companies can move out of the United States and operate using bonds and assets in dollars instead of cash. So, there is no panic in the market at present and professional traders are buying down according to the data.
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