An analysis of Bitcoin price action (BTC) dating back to 2011 shows that the next time a coin could be in value between $ 75,000 and $ 306,000, according to Kraken Research.
Based on a reading of the record growth curve that connects all-time highs and lows, the coin price of $ 75,000 will indicate Bitcoin is entering overbought territory, signaling the end of the current uptrend.
The report said: “Building on past cycles, Bitcoin will likely continue to gradually rise in value before eventually becoming parabolic and encountering resistance, signaling the end of the fourth bull market cycle.”
Analysis of the historical rise in prices gives bolder predictions. In the meantime, if BTC continues to move along its current growth curve and then enters a correction similar to previous market failures, the next low will be somewhere around $ 30,000.
Based on this assumed day, one can try to anticipate the next market peak, depending on the degree of recovery.
If Bitcoin is tracking 70% during the current cycle, the coin’s price would have to peak at $ 102,000 to reach the aforementioned low of $ 30,000.
Likewise, a 90% crash would trigger another peak of $ 306,000, and an 86% drop – the average drawdown from previous market cycles – would mean the next market peak of $ 221K. Either way, the report says, history shows that Bitcoin is still “far” from the top of the market.
Going back to the historical data, it turns out that the first quarter of 2021 was the third quarter with the best result in Bitcoin’s 12 years in existence, based on rate of return and annual volatility.
Kraken’s research shows that March has historically been a bad month for Bitcoin, as the coin has only appreciated twice during that period since trading began. Earlier, March was on average lagging February’s growth of 11%.
The report also indicates that Bitcoin is now in a similar direction to the first quarter of 2013 – the most fruitful first quarter in coin history. The 0.82 correlation between the two is encouraging and could undermine the historical trend that Bitcoin performed poorly in March.
Bitcoin posted five consecutive months with positive returns ahead of publication. Previously, this was only once – in 2017, and it has continued until this year’s bullish rally and the subsequent halt of the market.