Bitcoin (BTC) may be seven times higher than it was during the last halving, but if history repeats itself, that number could rise another 300% or more.
According to the environmental measurements of the data source on the chain this month, BTC / USD could outperform estimates simply by following historical precedent.
Bitcoin: Compared To 2017, You Haven’t Seen Nothing Yet
Bitcoin is currently trading 7.3x its value since it halved in May 2020. If the last halving cycle passes, the price movement will not stop until it is 30 times higher.
The data refers to semi-annual cycles of roughly four years in length, when Bitcoin exhibited identical behavior from the start.
The current cycle, despite the impatience of some traders, is still closely related to the previous two.
Taking 2017 as an example, the next peak in the price of BTC could reach $ 253,800 – and until then, Bitcoin will continue to operate within predetermined parameters.
The environmental measurements also include data on Ether (ETH) and its performance relative to the halving phase of Bitcoin.
The largest altcoin has seen much larger gains compared to bitcoin – and in 2018 its price has dropped by half over the last period.
So a re-execution means that ETH / USD is trading at $ 22,300, which again is not excluded.
In terms of what the ensuing bear market might bring, Bitcoin needs to hit a low of around $ 42,000 to copy the post-2017 correction. On the other hand, ETH will drop to $ 1,347.
Bitcoin and Ether performance graph after halving. Source: Ecoinometrics / Twitter.
1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin
If such sky-high numbers are hard to understand, they pale in comparison to what renowned data analyst Willie Wu is now thinking.
On the subject: Bitcoin is testing support again as trader expects BTC price to drop to $ 55k.
In a tweet this week, Wu reiterated that this cycle of halving bitcoins would be unique in one particular respect: you get things valued in bitcoins, not US dollars, because using anything to measure the value of bitcoins would be pointless.
“What are my expectations from the top of this cycle? “Since I think this is the last cycle, the one that drives us to saturation as if it is winning, we cannot value it in dollars because things are priced in bitcoins,” he wrote.
“So picking the top of the cycle is easy. It will be 1 BTC = 1 BTC ”.
A separate post noted how close Bitcoin is to market value when compared to the USD M2 offering. He noted that the situation over the next five years – the remainder of the current cycle and the beginning of the next – will be “very interesting.”