After weeks of selling bitcoin (BTC), bitcoin holders or whales have finally returned to buying.

Their buying activity not only recovered as the price of BTC exited the two-month ascending triangle to an all-time high, but also remained unchanged after the April 18 price crash.

The whales are back to hoarding bitcoins
The ongoing whale buying activity comes at a time when the number of addresses with over 1,000 bitcoins reaches the support line within four months.

Bitcoin: number of addresses with balance> = 1000. Source: Glassnode.
This is probably not coincidental as the shift occurs at a time when market gains are also approaching the support line.

The current profit dynamics is in line with the seven-month trend.
The profit-making rate can be derived from Adjusted Surplus Production (aSOPR), which measures the ratio between the price sold and the price paid for the currency, ignoring temporary currency fluctuations (movements less than an hour).

In other words, aSOPR measures how much profit (in USD) employees made by selling their coins.

Since September 2020, earnings have consistently found positive support at higher levels. This indicates that when there were sales in the last seven months, sellers felt comfortable not selling at higher profit margins each time compared to previous sales. However, over time, this trend may end.

Bitcoin: 10-day moving average SOPR (aSOPR) revised. Source: Glassnode
Profit activity indicates the market is at a key moment
When you zoom out and look at the profit in all previous bull markets, it becomes clear that this is not just a one-time or short-term trend, but rather a long-term pattern of the bitcoin bull markets.

These guidelines are usually designed for a period of three to 18 months. The chart below shows that breaking the second rule in every beef market has historically confirmed that the top of the beef market is on the inside.

Bitcoin: 10-day moving average SOPR (aSOPR) revised. Source: Glassnode
Not only is the aSOPR close to a 7-month support break, but there is also a big difference in the last pattern on this scale, which could be cause for concern.

Typically, the short-term highs of aSOPR reach higher levels each time, as the price rises more and more and the increased confidence translates into higher profits after each sale.

However, in the latter case, profit was taken earlier on every sale in the last three months (see red arrow), which is usually common after the peak of the beef market.

Onsite short term sellers
The latter trend can be attributed to the lower increase in interest rates in recent months and the large number of staff on short-term contracts. This assumption is supported by looking at the HODL waves, which show how long bitcoin will last.

The redder the color, the shorter the waiting time. It is becoming clear that short-term owners who have held bitcoins for a week to three months have been mostly selling in the market lately.

Bitcoin: HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode
Looking at the profit behavior of only short-term holders, it can be concluded that this group of traders may be on the verge of selling. The latest drop below 1 indicates that short-term stockholders are starting to lose.

In conditions of a target rally, a fall in prices can usually be expected, as selling activity tends to fall significantly.

Source: CoinTelegraph

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