Bitcoin (BTC) has been trapped in a symmetrical triangle for 56 days and according to technical price information, the trend change could continue until early May.
The support level is currently at $38,000 and the triangle daily close resistance is at $43,600.
Bitcoin mining rises, retail interest falls
Bitcoin/USD price on FTX. Source: Trading View
The week began with positive results for the Bitcoin network, with Lightning network bandwidth hitting an all-time high of 3,500 BTC. This solution allows for very cheap and instantaneous transactions at a secondary level known as off-chain processing.
After cryptocurrency mining was banned in China in 2021, companies registered in the US and Canada have attracted much of that computing power.
As a result, Bitcoin hashish has rebounded significantly since the summer. It currently peaks at over 200 EH/s. According to the Cambridge Bitcoin Energy Efficiency Index, 45% of the world’s hashrate comes from North America.
Additionally, White Gibbs, founder and CEO of Compass Mining, stated that “government miners definitely have an edge when it comes to bitcoin ownership because they have access to the capital markets.” In addition, selling pressure is easing as mining stocks rise steadily.
Comprehensive search for the term “Bitcoin”. Source: Google Trends.
Meanwhile, Google searches for “Bitcoin” are approaching a 12-month low. This indicator may partly explain why bitcoin is down 41% from its high of $69,000, meaning public interest is low. However, it is necessary to analyze how professional traders position themselves, and there is no better indicator than derivatives markets.
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Long and short data confirm undervoltage
The ratio of net long to short positions of major traders does not include external factors that may have affected specific derivatives. By analyzing these major client positions in spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are up or down.
There are scattered methodological discrepancies between the various exchanges, so viewers should be following changes rather than absolute numbers.
The best stock trader is Bitcoin long to short. Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin may have jumped 8% since March 13, but professional traders have not increased their bullish bets in line with the long and short indicator. For example, the largest retailer Huobi fell slightly today from 1.10 to 1.06.
In addition, OKX data shows that traders are reducing their long positions from 1.26 to 1.03 and are significantly reducing their long positions. The only exception was Binance, as top traders increased their long positions from 1.05 to 1.13. However, there was a slight decline of 0.06 on average across the three major stock exchanges.
Can a triangle break into a vertex?
In terms of the accounts discussed above, there is hardly any sense that the price of Bitcoin will turn bullish in the short term. The data shows that professional traders have reduced their long positions, expressed in terms of the underlying price and the ratio of long to short positions.
In addition, the broader Google search trend indicates that retail interest is not growing despite higher inflation data and global social and political uncertainty. At the moment, there is little chance of a breakout of the symmetrical triangle upwards.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Any investment and trading involves risk. You must do your research when making a decision.