Bitcoin (BTC) price fell below $ 56,000 on March 21 after repeatedly deviating from the $ 60,000 resistance level over the past four days.
Despite close to breaking the central technical level, Bitcoin showed weakness in the $ 59,000 to $ 60,500 range.
There are three main causes for the recession: high Treasury yields, downward moves in Bitfinex, and difficulties in the risk market.
High yields on US government bonds lead to a downturn in risk markets
With the yield on 10-year US government bonds rising, risk appetite tends to decline as investors may look for safer alternatives to increase government bond yields.
While Bitcoin hasn’t seen a strong relationship with Dow Jones, it has seen a close relationship with high-tech indices like the S&P 500.
This indicates that the strong performance of US government bonds is leading to a recession in stagnant assets, slowing the pace of Bitcoin, as Cointelegraph previously reported.
US government bond yields began to rise above key levels on March 19. Bitcoin has since strengthened, and has struggled to rise above $ 60,000.
Holger Schibbitz, a market analyst at Welt, said:
“Treasury yields have broken through several key levels as bond traders have stepped up efforts to allow the Fed to allow inflation to rise above levels when the US economy recovers. The 10-year yield is 1.75% with ING not seeing real impediments to growth.”
The 10-year government interest rate rises above 1.7%. Source: Bloomberg, Holger Schibbitz
For Bitcoin to see a sustainable rally, you must see a favorable macroeconomic landscape that will only be possible with stable US tax profits.
Selling pressure on Bitfinex to $ 60K resistance
According to the nickname of a Bitcoin trader and technical analyst known as “The Byzantine General,” Bitfinex has come under heavy selling pressure.
Other derivative trading platforms such as Deribit, FTX and BitMEX have also shown decent interest in short positions, according to the trader.
“Yes … the damn isn’t over yet. Bitfinex is still dumped. There has been a short-term serious interest in Deribit, Mex, and FTX. However, OI is finally relaxing.”
Bitcoin short interest rate. Source: Tradingview.com, Byzantine General
The combination of an unfavorable macroeconomic landscape and pressure from both whale and derivative traders would likely consolidate bitcoins to under $ 60,000.
However, in the foreseeable future, the possibility of an opening session on aid may increase if the open interest in the futures market continues to weaken.
The term “open interest rate” refers to the total amount of active positions in the futures market. When it is declining, it means that the general trading activity in derivatives is declining.
This is a positive trigger
Well-known network analyst Willie Wu explained that Bitcoin has a good chance of not dropping its market value below a trillion trillion again.
Wu noted that the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which shows the realized price of all UTXO on any given day, indicates that a trillion dollars in the market acts as a bonus. He said:
URPD: “7.3% of Bitcoins jumped over $ 1 trillion recently. “This is very strong evidence of price; $ 1 trillion is already supported by investors. I would say there is a good chance that we will never see Bitcoin under $ 1 trillion again. It has only been three months since Bitcoin broke $ 19700.” A maximum of an hour since the last large session. But already 28.7% of bitcoins have moved higher than $ 19.7K.