Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be ready to test the $ 43,000 level in March, according to a white paper shared by Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous market analyst.
BTC returns strong 2022 support
Bitcoin’s fall to $ 37,000 on March 7 was met with modest buying sentiment, which led to the price rising above $ 39,000 on March 8. Interestingly, a bullish corrective move emerged around the same rising sloping trend line that served as a savings zone for traders in 2022.
Rekt Capital discovered a successful retest of the trend line in their latest review, noting that such a move could lead to Bitcoin’s next rally above $ 43,100, giving a break over the green choppy diagonal resistance as shown in the chart below.
Weekly BTC / USD exchange rate chart. Source: Rect Capital, TradingView
“The retest here was successful and BTC could actually repeat last week’s move,” Rekt Capital commented on March 8.
Bitcoin up to 30 thousand dollars?
A temporary bullish outlook emerged as Bitcoin remained in a broad trading range – $ 34,000 to $ 45,000 – through the first quarter of 2022. At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) resisted strong selling pressure, which was settled by concerns. Current macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, including concerns about higher interest rates and military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
As Filbfilb, co-founder of the trading group DecenTrader, noted last weekend, “Bitcoin is macro-wide,” but its long-term structure suggests it may break higher.
“In the near term, if 50-day DMA and 3-day levels provide support, there could be a retest of the $ 43,000 level and higher timeframe,” Flibflib said, adding an additional break over Bitcoin’s annual $ 48,000 pivot level. will be “very significant and involve fundamental changes”. “.
Four-hour BTC / USD exchange rate chart. Source: Decentrader, TradingView.
But Rekt Capital’s optimistic setup showed that Bitcoin had little potential to expand bounce to $ 48,000. This is because the layout looks like a declining “rising triangle” pattern, which is a consolidation area that usually sends the price even lower after a breakout move. .
In particular, the rising triangle profit target is calculated by measuring the maximum distance between two trend lines in the pattern and subtracting it from the breakout level.
The chart below assumes that the breakout point is between $ 37,500 and $ 45,000, which means that a successful break below the triangle’s range can see bitcoin fall to $ 30,000 and $ 35,000.
Daily BTC / USD price chart showing rising triangle measurements. Source: Trading View
Interestingly, both $ 30,000 and $ 35,000 have been strong levels of support in recent history.
Flibflib also emphasized that the $ 30,000 level is in line with the lower end of Bitcoin’s logarithmic regression range – the “tested” support level.
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“The good news is that Bitcoin has less distance to travel because it has not worked as hard,” the analyst stressed, adding:
“Convergence with this right now at the bottom of the weekly range is a big issue in our opinion and supports the idea that we will not see a withdrawal like we did in previous sessions.”