Bitcoin (BTC) on its way to the worst January result in four years – maybe not everything is as it seems?
Data from the online analysis resource Coinglass shows that January 2022 was the least profitable since the peak of the last halving cycle for Bitcoin. However, investors are still waiting for an eruption to the top.
Will Bitcoin see the rare “red” February?
Contrary to almost everyone’s expectations, BTC’s price action this month has continued to be unsatisfactory.
With current spot prices of $ 36,800, BTC / USD is down 20.1% since the beginning of the year, exacerbating the misery that began in November, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC / USD 1 month candle chart (bit stamp). Source: Trading View
Historical data shows that January, on the other hand, is often a “green” month for bitcoin – by comparison, 2021 has generated returns of over 21%.
However, the same can be said for November and December, which makes this year especially painful for bulls. During these two months of 2020, prices increased by 43% and 47% respectively.
Meanwhile, it was Bitcoin’s last red January in 2018, when the glow associated with reaching an all-time high of $ 20,000 quickly cooled.
The peak of this halving cycle, about 18 months after the previous block support halving event, was to be repeated at the end of 2021. The reality was completely different, and Bitcoin’s poor performance led to criticism of the time-tested pricing hardware.
While the Cointelegraph is speculating on what could break the downward trend next month, February still has history on its side when it comes to the Bitcoin price strength.
In the last year, the bitcoin / dollar exchange rate has risen by almost 37% in four weeks, while the last time there was a serious fall was in February 2014. In 2018, on the other hand, bitcoin barely moved.
Bitcoin monthly return chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass
Shorts are in the mood this week
As the Cointelegraph reports, unconventional price movements since November have led analysts to wonder whether Bitcoin is in a bull market or a bear market.
Related topics: “Stop panicking” – Bitcoin Whales Pack BTC Reserve with low exchange balances
In the middle of this month’s loss, traders are down 52% from all-time highs last week, so opinions favor a further withdrawal.
The data show the determination of opportunistic traders – the fall below $ 37,000 after the end of the week was largely exploited by short-traders who focused on continued weakness.