Bitcoin (BTC) may struggle at $40K, but recent data underscores the fact that hardly anyone is interested in selling.
Data from chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that despite price volatility, more than 60% of BTC supply does not leave the wallet for a year or more.
Strong hands are rarely stronger
Stubborn long-term investors are a feature that sets today’s bitcoin market climate apart from most other bearish trends.
As the spot price campaign topped a 50% loss from last month’s high in November, cold business was expected, but sales never occurred among the seasoned producers.
In fact, the opposite has been true for a long time – long-term investors add or stay in BTC positions.
According to Glassnode’s HODL Waves indicator, as of February 18, 60.61% of the BTC supply has not been used in transactions for a year or more.
Bitcoin HODL wave chart (screenshot). Source: Unchained Capital
The number is significant – only twice in the history of Bitcoin has the value of one year or more reached this level.
As noted by entrepreneur and investor Alistair Milne, both cases followed a downtrend and preceded a significant decline in bitcoin’s price action.
As such, a very different trend for Bitcoin is likely to emerge in the medium term, which could challenge the generally dismal narrative of weakening macroeconomic support, higher interest rates, and geopolitical tensions.
“Long-term HODLs are being patient because they know what might happen soon,” added Philip Swift, Decentrader’s Trading Package Analyst.
Small time frame moves hurt speculators
As such, short-term trends don’t seem to matter much for most bitcoin in circulation, and they’re still somewhat worrisome this week.
Related: This 2018 Bitcoin Price Fractal Could Catch Speculators, Push BTC Price to $25,000 – Analyst
Monitoring order book activity on the major Binance exchanges, for example, the analytics resource indices indicated that support blankets disappeared above $40,000 before Friday’s plunge to a two-week low.
As Cointelegraph also reported, small investors slowed their cumulative activity last week.
