Bitcoin (BTC) HODLers have long been reluctant to sell their assets, data chains from Glassnode appear.
According to Glassnode’s bitcoin exposure over the past two years or more, bitcoin, which was last transferred more than two years ago, reached its lowest level in three months at 45.364%.
This trend suggests that Bitcoin-HODL, which bought the top of the last bullish cycle in 2018 and earlier, is showing a deeper conviction as BTC is consolidating over $ 55,000. Interestingly, the December 2020 peak suggests that many may have sold at a breakeven point of around $ 20,000, or the previous high in 2017.
Why is Bitcoin Standardized with Low Volatility?
Bitcoin usually reaches its peak or undergoes a major correction when long-term holders of the coins start selling quickly.
In previous bullish cycles, HODLers profitably selling their positions quickly plunged 50%, triggering a massive recall of the entire cryptocurrency market in short periods.
This trend coincides with the fact that HODLers are not selling large amounts of BTC, indicating that the peak may be far from arriving.
Bitcoin, which stands at around $ 55,000, is extremely bullish for two main reasons. First, BTC has maintained a strong market structure despite some hurdles. Second, bitcoin consolidation near all-time high is a technically positive sign.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has faced serious threats that could trigger a dangerous downturn in the short term.
The yield on US government bonds increased. This often leads to a technical drop in the stock, which negatively affects all risk markets.
Moreover, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Yong Joo explained, miners have a lot of bitcoins that they haven’t sold in recent months. In fact, the amount of BTC that miners have moved has been much less compared to previous withdrawals this year. This may indicate that miners are more likely to expect higher prices down the road.
On March 17th, Key also pointed to three other chain-based factors that could contribute to a stagnant uptrend for Bitcoin. Then he wrote:
“I think it will take BTC some time to take another step in terms of supply / demand. 1 / Lots of Bitcoin holdings in US dollars compared to stablecoins on spot exchanges. 2 / The market value of BTC is too high to be captured. New level using value. The market is for an exclusively stablecoin. No significant immediate inflow in US dollars – neutral base currency premium and negative GBTC premium, QBTC premium.
Despite the risks mentioned above, Bitcoin performed relatively well, avoiding falling below $ 50,000.
Prominent traders under pseudonyms, including Rekt Capital, said that in the next few days there could be heavy confirmation of the possibility of forming a bitcoin bottom.
It is difficult to predict when the exact bottom will form, but if BTC remains above $ 55,000 for a few days and shows a “lows-higher” formation, the trader said another rally might occur. he wrote:
“You never know when the true bottom of the #BTC retracement will be. But you can look for ways to confirm a potential low. If $ BTC forms a higher level in the next few days, there should be enough confirmation that the bottom is in.”
Hence, as long as the bitcoin price remains above $ 55,000 in the short term, the formation of a higher low will not change when it enters the market in April, a historic bullish month that has not closed in the red since 2015.