According to the latest Skew data, Bitcoin (BTC) has not seen three consecutive positive quarters since 2017. If BTC ends the fourth quarter with a net profit, there will be three consecutive winning quarters for the first time in three years.
The fourth quarter was mostly bearish for Bitcoin since 2018.
But historical data is not in Bitcoin’s favor, with the last two quarters ending at 42.54% and 13.6%, respectively, in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
From late 2016 to 2018, Bitcoin experienced five positive quarters in a row, peaking at an all-time high of the end of 2017.
Analysts attribute the historic rise to two main factors. First, BTC caused a massive craze in major markets including the US and South Korea. Second, BTC came as a result of pooled bonus payments that were cut in half in July 2016, which marks a general milestone for the network.
Halving the block reward has a positive effect on the price of BTC as it has a direct effect on the newly released offer. Halving cuts the rate at which new BTC is created in half, which reduces the supply circulating over time.
Hence, BTC tends to see large clusters after being sliced in half. The problem is that in 2016 the rally came 15 months after it halved, and some analysts have already found parallels for how the start of this rally has reached the current period.
The last half, which occurs every four years, happened in May 2020. If a cycle similar to 2016 breaks out, BTC is likely to see a massive spike by the last quarter of 2021.
However, since 2018, Bitcoin has lagged behind in the fourth quarter. Poor performance can be cyclical for a number of reasons. US investors can sell BTC for tax clearance at the end of the year, while Asian owners can sell until New Year.
But by the end of the year, two factors are likely to amplify the bullish trend on Bitcoin: rally in gold and a weaker dollar.
Strategic analysts at Swiss investment bank UBS expect gold to continue to rally throughout 2021. These expectations coincide with the fundamental weakness of the dollar against other reserve currencies.
What traders expect in the short term
In the short term, traders will be more wary of bitcoin price movements, especially when the US dollar begins to strengthen during the US elections.
Meanwhile, technical analysts are tracking two major technical levels: $ 10,500 and $ 10,000 per bitcoin. As Cointelegraph reported, a loss of the $ 10,000 support zone could trigger a major exit. Pisces move indicates weak support area at $ 9,800, which could lead to a larger correction.
Cryptocurrency Technical Analyst Edward Moura said it remains bearish until BTC closes above $ 11,000. he wrote:
“It remains bearish until it confidently closes at over $ 11,000 per day. If you are looking for a reaction around $ 10,500 – $ 10,450, this is the closest daily support.”