One of the most hotly debated topics in the cryptocurrency community is the Bitcoin (BTC) four-year half-cycle and its impact on the long-term price of the highest coin.

Bitcoin prices have not reached the $ 100,000 level expected in 2021, and many crypto analysts are now predicting the next six to 12 months.

Currently, the price of BTC is below $ 40,000, and various technical analysis indicators suggest that a further decline could be between $ 40,000 and $ 45,000. Let’s take a look at the analysts’ views on the long-term outlook for bitcoin.

BTC / USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin is likely to fall in November or December
A general overview of the four-year cycle theory was discussed on Twitter by crypto wolf Crypto, a crypto analyst and pseudonym Twitter user, whose analysis states that the bottom of the bear market is likely to be in November and December 2022. . ».

BTC / USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter
The forecast was at $ 68,789 on November 10, 2021, marking the end of the last cycle, assuming that the market is currently in the correction phase, which usually takes place after a one-cycle peak.

The analyst said:

“The 200-week SMA bitcoin has long been a bearish test for the bear market, so the bottom line could be ~ $ 24,000.”
If this model is implemented, the price of BTC will break the previous all-time high around August or September 2023.

Bitcoin “seems a bit underestimated here”
Willie Wu, an independent market analyst, predicted that the low in the BTC could reach before the end of 2022, and published the following table, indicating that “the orange coin looks a little lower here.”

High fluid supply collision vibration. Source: Twitter
The “high-liquid supply collision” index quantifies chain demand and supply, and indicates relative behavior in the standard deviation from the long-term average level.

As shown in the diagram above, each time the volatility decreases as it is now reading, the price of BTC soon rises sharply.

Wu said:

“It simply came to our notice then.
Related: Bitcoin is down 40% from ATH, but chain analysts say it is “starting to fall.”

Bitcoin prices are at medium-term lows
Many analysts believe that BTC may be in the best frame of reference, a point made by crypto market analyst Philip Swift. According to Swift, the Active Address Sensitivity Index (AASI) indicates that BTC is in the buy zone.

Active Address Emotion Index. Source: Twitter
According to Swift, AASI is currently “back in the green zone”, indicating that bitcoin price fluctuations are at a reasonable level compared to positive address changes.

Swift said,

“The weapon has a good impact on the bull and bear market to signal a medium-term low.”
Indeed, a survey of past cases that have reached the same level as AASI’s current reading shows that BTC prices have fallen to their lows at the same time, rising further in the coming weeks and months.

In general, it seems that bitcoin price movements are slightly higher than expected, but are consistent with the four-year cycle that has been set before.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading activity involves risk, and you have to research it yourself when making a decision.

Source: CoinTelegraph

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