Bitcoin (BTC) is 20% lower than a record high of $ 62,000 in mid-March. Since cryptocurrency markets are often volatile, this may be another normal withdrawal during the current bull cycle.
Corrections are needed to create strength for more bullish momentum, as markets cannot gather in a straight line. In addition, the $ 6 billion options are expected to expire on March 26, which often leads to some volatility.
The market momentum also often changes after the option expires.
The $ 53,000 level should support the upward momentum.
The 4-hour chart clearly shows a downward trend from the historic high of $ 62,000 with fluctuations in support / resistance.
However, the price of bitcoin bounced back from its critical resistance zone of $ 56,500 in its latest rally after Tesla announced that it had begun accepting (and holding) BTC in the United States for its cars. Since this price level could not be broken for further gains, renewed tests of the $ 53,000 support zone were inevitable.
Given that the $ 53,000 support range has been tested several times in recent weeks, it is quite possible that this level will not be maintained this time. Therefore, on March 25, the price dropped to $ 51,500.
Therefore, the price of Bitcoin must now go back to the range of $ 53,200 – $ 53,800 to revive an upward momentum in the near future. If not, we’ll probably see an even bigger drop in the next support zone between $ 49,500 and $ 51,500.
The overall structure is still very optimistic.
The daily bitcoin / dollar chart is still optimistic, showing higher downturns and higher stability. From this point of view, the correction to $ 44,000 still means that the bullish formation remains unchanged.
As such, the bitcoin price is currently receiving strong support in the range of $ 49500 to $ 51,500, and is unlikely to fall further.
In addition, bearish deviations are not confirmed until the market begins to make lower lows and lows below $ 44,000, as previously mentioned.
The dollar is showing strength
The US dollar showed strength again as interest rates also rose significantly. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that we are seeing a decline in risky assets such as commodities and cryptocurrencies.
The bounce of the US dollar is usually lower for the cryptocurrency markets, especially in the short term. But this recent rally in dollars is probably temporary as it faces strong opposition. Furthermore, the structure still shows lower lows and lower heights, which means that a trend reversal should be expected relatively soon.
Thus, if the dynamics of the dollar stops, there will be more opportunities for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market to grow.
Possible scenario for bitcoin
Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart is bearish, as it is likely that testing of the $ 53,200-53,800 range will be rejected. Thus, a more likely scenario for building the current price in the near future is a lower trend.
The green area shown in the chart above is the area to look for potential bullish deviations or immediate reversal. If such a move occurs, the ideal scenario for the bulls is to create a higher low point.
Once such a higher low is set, the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise with the next points of interest of $ 68,000 and $ 82,000.