Bitcoin (BTC) is down around 30% after reaching 5.8 million rubles per token on March 9. However, this fall could be an excuse for traders to give up another large stock of the Russian national currency if the classic bullish continuation pattern unfolds.
Bitcoin is approaching 11 million rubles
This pattern, called the rising triangle, occurs when the price unites between the lower rising trend line (support) and the flat upper trend line (resistance). It ends after the price exits the consolidation area in the direction of the previous trend, with length levels equal to the maximum distance between the upper and lower trend lines in the triangle.
The price of bitcoin against the ruble has had a similar structure since January 2021, as shown in the chart below. It closed above the upper trend line of the triangle, rising more than 20% to an all-time high of 5.88 million rubles.
Weekly BTC / RUB price chart with “Ascending Triangle” layout. Source: Trading View
However, BTC has corrected to test range resistance as support, which is common after breakouts when traders are looking for confirmation of a pattern with more bullish potential.
If this is true, the probability of a recovery and continuation of the movement to 11 million rubles in the future seems to be almost 140% high.
Russian capital control
The positive technical outlook for the Bitcoin / Russian ruble market is also driven by the continued influx of Russian assets following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Western countries collaborated to cut the country’s ties with the global banking system.
As a result, the Moscow Stock Exchange has suspended trading from February 28 until further notice. Russia-backed equities abroad have also been hit hard, with the MSCI index, which tracks exchange-traded funds, having recorded outflows of around 78 percent since the invasion began on 24 February.
On the subject: ally or suspect? The war in Ukraine is a stress test for the cryptocurrency industry
iShares MSCI Russia ETF weekly price chart. Source: Trading View
As of March 7, the ruble has fallen more than 50% so far this year against the US dollar, the largest fall since Russia defaulted in 1998. The Russian central bank intervened with a series of capital controls, including a six-month ban on foreign currency sales