Everyone is talking about the six-digit Bitcoin (BTC) price now that the digital asset has broken out of a multi-month bearish trend and confirmed the upside.
If Bitcoin enters a parabolic move towards $110,000, it will eventually agree with PlanB’s Equity-to-Energy forecast. According to an analyst working under a pseudonym, the scarcity and valuation of gold and other precious metals, as well as Elon Musk’s energy futures and the suppression of China’s mining industry are just some of the factors that have contributed to the model’s error of 50% or more in the past five months. …
Bulls are largely hoping that the listed fund will be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. There are currently several applications pending between October 18 and November 1, but the organizer may postpone the final decision.
The expiration of $830 million options on October 15 was heavily influenced by the 20% rally that began on October 4, which may have led to 92% of put options being discontinued.
Bitcoin price on Coinbase in US dollars. Source: TradingView
The fallout from China’s attack on mining was a major event that could boost investor sentiment, with research showing that the US accounts for 35.4% of the Bitcoin hash rate.
In addition, according to Cointelegraph, additional large Bitcoin mining centers are expected to appear in the US states of Texas and Ohio, which will significantly increase the share of the US cryptocurrency market.
The expiry on October 8 was profitable for the bulls.
After earning $370 million at the expiration of BTC options last week, the bulls had even more firepower, seen at the end of the $820 million on Friday. This feature explains why the open interest of call (call) options is 43% higher than that of neutral bearish call options.
Bitcoin options cumulative open interest rate october 15. Source: Bybt.
As the above data shows, the bears placed $335 million in bets at the end of Friday, but this appears to have been caught, as 92% of put options are likely to be worthless.
In other words, if bitcoin stays above $56,000 on October 15, $36 million in neutral bearish puts will be activated on Friday at 08:00 UTC.
Bulls have reason to push BTC price above $58,000
Here are the four most likely scenarios for an October 15 expiration. The imbalance in favor of both sides is a theoretical advantage. In other words, depending on the expiration price, the number of active buy (buy) and sell (sell) contracts varies:
$52,000 to $54,000: 3,140 calls for 2,110 points. The net result is $55 million in favor of Communication Tools (Bulls).
$54,000 to $56,000: 3,700 calls for 1,240 points. The net result is $130 million in favor of Communication Tools (Bulls).
Between $56,000 and $58,000: 4,850 calls to 680 pips. Net income of $235 million for communication tools (Bulls).
Over $58,000: 6,230 calls for 190 pips. The end result is total domination with a profit of $350 million.
This approximation takes into account buying options used exclusively in bullish games and placing options in neutral to bearish trades. However, investors could have used a more complex strategy, which usually includes different expiration dates.
Bears need a 7% price retracement to cut losses.
In both scenarios, the bulls have complete control of the expiration on Friday and have several reasons to keep the price above $56,000. On the other hand, bears need a negative 7% drawdown below $54,000 to avoid losses of $235 million or more.
However, traders should keep in mind that during an upward movement, the seller has to put in a lot of effort to pressure the price and it is usually ineffective. Analysts point to a significant advantage in call (buy) options, which will lead to bullish prices next week.