The PlanB analyst acknowledges that Bitcoin (BTC) is “most likely” not to reach its expected monthly close in November.

In an update on Twitter on November 25, the creator of the “worst-case scenario” prepared a month-end price prediction to admit defeat for the first time.

The First ‘Potential’ Missing in the Bitcoin Floor Model
With a short position of around $40,000, Bitcoin is currently well below the November closing level.

PlanB now admits that it is unlikely that BTC/USD will reach $98,000 in the next five days.

“The $98,000 closed floor model in November is likely to be her first Miss (since nailed in August, September and October),” he said in a Twitter comment.

Speaking on November 11 on a podcast hosted by Seifeddine Amous, author of The Bitcoin Standard and The Fiat Standard, PlanB outlined his past belief in the gender paradigm rooted in its mathematical nature.

“If we don’t reach $98,000 by the end of November, this will be the first number for this indicator in the entire history of Bitcoin,” he said.

The gender model correctly predicted — roughly by letter (or number) — the final monthly prices of $47,000, $43,000, and $63,000 for August, September, and October, respectively.

Thanks for the 200% annual winnings.
While departing with tradition, lowering the floor-price model will not affect the scale of the inventory model in PlanB’s ground-breaking flow, he noted after repeatedly mixing the two models in some way.

Stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio currently calls for an average BTC/USD price of $100,000 in this halving cycle, with Q4 2021 provided as a suitable timeframe for a level demonstration for the first time.

A related model, Cross Assets (S2FX), is still averaging at $288,000, but nonetheless has been criticized in recent weeks because Bitcoin has performed worse.

However, in a conversation with Amos, PlanB said that the gap between the spot rate and the S2F model price does not yet threaten to negate it.

The model uses standard deviation bands to track progress and so far this month the rate of BTC/USD has remained within the acceptable range.

A piece of BTC/USD is flowing against stocks with a specified standard deviation range. Source: S2F Multiple / Twitter
Meanwhile, Cointelegraph reports that a number of other indicators remain positive for the future, as the current stage of prices is seen as a consolidation rather than a prelude to a deeper crash.

BTC/USD started at $29,000 in 2021, while the number of holders has increased by more than 210% since last Thanksgiving.

Source: CoinTelegraph

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