Uncertainty across the board means an unusual end to the fourth-quarter bitcoin bull market this year, but the price floor may be closer than many think.
Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the new week with analysts looking for a bottom, but that may not mean a drop to $40,000 or lower.

After a featureless weekend, Bitcoin bulls are now facing another week of bearish sentiment in the global economy as risk appetite remains dovish.

With the lack of a “Christmas rally” for almost everyone, it seems that there are several triggers that will help BTC/USD return higher by the New Year. At the same time, the performance within the network remains high, and the miners refuse to spend money.

With Christmas just around the corner, Cointelegraph takes a look at what to look out for this week as it assesses where Bitcoin could be heading.

$50,000 seems far away for bitcoin bulls
Bitcoin didn’t make any notable moves over the weekend, but attention is now on a potentially volatile market bottom.

At $46,000, BTC/USD remains firmly anchored in a known range and the bulls do not find momentum to attack $50,000 again.

Buying is taking place, especially among smaller retail investors, but lower levels are likely for market veterans.

For popular trader Pentoshi, this could still avoid a $40,000 retest. In a Sunday tweet, he named major exchange Bitfinex and its major traders as a likely source of support.

“Finex makes ups and downs for $BTC. Believe me, this is a similar situation where they will simply absorb the sales at these key levels. See September 40.7K post below,” he wrote, referring to market events at the end of September.

“Now I’m looking for 42-46k from below IMHO.”

BTC/USD hourly chart (Bitstamp). Source: Trading View
Others were more optimistic, with fellow trader Galaxy calling for a “green week” led by altcoins.

With 10 days left in the year, a surprise ending to 2021 is not out of the question across the board, even when it comes to crypto markets.

In its latest market update, trading platform Decentrader touched on the Bitcoin Advanced NVT indicator as a potential springboard for higher price levels.

The historical cycle metric, still at the bottom, may still surprise traders as it nearly reached its lowest overbought level ever.

“Will we see the same thing this time around with the jump and rally before the Christmas break? Or will we see more profit taking at the end of the year?” update summarized.

“Right now $BTC is at a key decision point, so it would certainly be wise to carefully manage your risk until a clear trend emerges.”

Bitcoin Advanced NVT signal chart (blue). Source: LookIntoBitcoin
Miners keep hiding
The cohort of bitcoin holders not in the mood to sell at current prices are miners whose outflows are at their lowest level in three months.

According to data from Glassnode, miner churn has almost halved in just over a month, echoing the turnaround in market momentum from record highs.

An equally sharp drop occurred in September, when spot markets bottomed out two weeks later. Thus, this month’s action has a historical precedent.

The bitcoin miner is running a 1-hour chart (7-day moving average). Source: Glassnode/Twitter
Additional data shows that unspent inventory is about to hit an all-time high, culminating in a mining-to-hodling trend that began in 2020.

In other words, miners are slow to spend their block subsidies after a new block has been successfully mined.

Macro trades 21-month bullish trend for volatility
Sources warn this week that macro volatility will continue into 2022, a trend that worries investors.

As with bitcoin, the unexpected downtrend means that the fourth quarter of this year could end badly and deprive the market of its classic “Christmas rally.”

Both the coronavirus and the political unrest in the United States are to blame, with the latter coming in the form of a senator rejecting President Joe Biden’s controversial $2 trillion spending package.

Stocks in Asia fell during the day and sentiment was cautious ahead of the US Open.

“Investors should be prepared for Covid to be far away in 2022.

Source: CoinTelegraph

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