Bitcoin has tested the $ 30,500 support level twice in the last 48 hours. Historically, when a large support area is repeatedly tested, it often breaks. In its third re-test on Jan.27, Bitcoin fell below $ 30,000. However, $ 30,000 is a very important level of support for BTC, so whales may try to buy that level to prevent outbreaks after they recover.
Whale groups suggest three main short-term levels: $ 34,970, $ 29,314, and $ 28,727. Bitcoin is currently fighting for a $ 30,000 support level. Whale groups form when whales or high net worth investors buy bitcoins and not transfer them. The theory behind the herds of whales is that if Bitcoin falls, the whales are more likely to buy more at the price they bought previously.
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $ 33,000 after a sharp drop from $ 35,000. When BTC stagnates, traders are looking at both bullish and bearish problems in the short term. For now, it appears that traders are leaning towards a bearish scenario, as Bitcoin struggles to quickly recover from its support zone of $ 29,314.
Bitcoin will likely range from $ 29,314 to $ 34,970 for the foreseeable future. Whales that bought BTC at $ 29,314 would likely continue buying if BTC approaches this level. But whales that bought about $ 35,000 might sell at break even, so $ 34,970 would be a resistance area. Bitcoin has received two deviations at this level in the past 48 hours, indicating that this is a difficult sales wall.
BTC rise cases
Bitcoin’s bull is still the macro economy in the short term. In the short term, analysts are generally skeptical of Bitcoin’s direction. However, in the medium to long term, online analysts see a positive trend. According to analysts at Glassnode, the Net Unrealized Performance Index, or NUPL, shows Bitcoin has room for another run before it peaks.
NUPL measures the level of unrealized profits that crypto investors are making. If the unrealized profit is high, there is a possibility of a profit correction, which may increase sales pressure on BTC. Glassnode analysts wrote: “The #Bitcoin NUPL was rejected when they went into orgasm earlier this month. […] After a similar incident in 2017, $ BTC rose nearly 900% before peaking.”
In addition to the relatively low unrealized profits in the bitcoin market, public institutions and companies continue to aggressively accumulate bitcoin. On January 25, Marathon, one of the largest bitcoin miners in North America, bought Bitcoins for $ 150 million.
The company has confirmed that it will soon be able to break 55 to 60 BTC per day worth $ 1.65 million. However, the company has indicated that it wants to acquire more bitcoins as equity: “With our cash to invest in bitcoins now, we have redesigned our capabilities into a pure investment.”
Two indicators to watch out for in the near future are Coinbase churn and Stablecoin. Coinbase’s momentum suggests that high net worth institutions or investors buy and withdraw BTC from Coinbase. Over the past two months, when the rate of change has been high, BTC has grown strongly. The large influx of accumulated coins is also important because it will mean that the return capital is returning to the bitcoin market.
BTC will be working soon
Bitcoin’s bearish position in the near future is mainly related to the possibility that the market will witness a downturn due to the risks from institutions and large buyers. Real Vision CEO Raul Pal explained earlier the “head fraud” theory, with hedge funds and organizations taking profits on their positions until the end of the first quarter. This often leads to a downturn throughout the market when retail investors buying stocks and other assets at high prices begin to give up.
Pal said he suspected something was threatening the market. He revealed abnormal sentiment regarding gold, Bitcoin, bonds and the US dollar. Based on this trend, Pal said he was ready for a “market clarification event,” which would likely mean a market-level correction:
“It’s too early to say, but something seems risky in the markets – how bonds are traded, how dollars, gold, BTC are traded and what happens to stocks. Ready for a market clarification event.