Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with a rare disappointment with a bullrally in the fourth quarter when it failed to break past previous support.
After a promising weekend, BTC / USD eventually jumped to $ 60,000 twice, and has since fallen below $ 57,000 as market dynamics weakened.
The stakes are high: Some believe that high target prices for bitcoin can still be hit by the end of the month, while others believe that this beef market will take longer than previous markets.
Since November is more likely to break with tradition and lag behind – compared to the last months and years of the old beef market – traders and analysts are preparing for a nervous but potentially interesting end to the month.
Cointelegraph looked at five factors that could affect Bitcoin price movements in the last week of an extremely busy “lunar month”.
$ 60,000 against resistance
For most of the weekend, the analysts’ mood was simple: “It could have been worse.”
After reaching a low of five weeks at $ 55,650, BTC / USD managed to recover some of its losses, and on Saturday it “climbed” even to $ 60,000.
This ultimately failed, but a new attempt was made on Sunday with Bitcoin spending a few short minutes in the $ 60,000 range before the company’s failure caused the market to crash again.
As of this writing, $ 57,000 is in focus on Monday, with a clear point where what was once strong support has turned into resistance.
Well-known trader Pentoshi summed up the sentiment and confirmed the desire to return $ 61,000 in support of the continuation of the bullish movement.
November 2021 has yielded a negative return of -6.5% for scammers so far, making it one of only three contributors in Bitcoin history that has not earned.
As Cointelegraph reported, other years have seen a transformative price action, not least in 2020, when the BTC / USD pair rose by almost 43% in November.
Sunday’s retreat, however, bridged the recent CME futures gap on Friday, which has again become a function of spot prices this month.
According to other crypto trader and analyst Ed, this is what needs to happen to increase the chances of a new bullish trend returning in the new week.
“We expect another guy to fill out CME tonight and from there again in the coming days,” he said in Sunday’s Twitter comments.
The timeline bar chart for CME Bitcoin futures shows a gap. Source: TradingView
Despite all the frustrations that Bitcoin only fixes when it is discouraged, not everyone is surprised – or worried.
Shorter time frames can paint a completely different picture of the state of the market than longer time frames, and this is what commentators hope to support this week’s sustained bullish dissertation.
“When In Doubt, Minimize” – Compared to performance over the past two years after blocking support, Bitcoin remains on track.
“Remarkably similar corrective structures as BTC 8H,” TechDev analyst confirmed Sunday.
“Almost on the day when we have 4 years left. 2021 is still 5-8 days behind 2017 from July. ”
TechDev points to data showing that Bitcoin has not only replicated the figures for 2017 this year, but also replicated time frames for each phase of the bull market.
If this continues, the estimated upper step should also be displayed – except this time, in the order of more than $ 20,000 for 2017.
Highlights by comparing BTC / USD annotated charts with RSI. Source: TechDev / Twitter
The chart also shows how the Bitcoins Relative Strength Index (RSI) in particular reflects November 2017.
Bullish cycle peaks are usually followed by an RSI of 90 or higher, far from current reading at lower time frames.
Funding increases when the rematch is $ 60,000.
Despite losing the $ 60,000 battle, the process of trying to break out of lower levels has had an unwanted effect on derivatives markets as traders increase their influence again.
After actually “resetting” to neutral during last week’s low, financing rates begin to move again.
Excessively positive positions such as Bybit, OKEx and others at the time of writing suggest a bullish bias – expect more card gains.
This can often give undesirable results, as a fall in prices opens up a large number of positions, which leads to an even greater fall in prices.
So far nothing has been said about the liquidation – $ 70 million for bitcoin and $ 219 million in the cryptocurrency markets in the last 24 hours.