Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $ 38,000 in March, losing all gains it made last week when BTC / USD rose above $ 45,000.
BTC falls below $ 40K again due to rising oil prices
The losses appeared to be related to sales in risky markets, which led to the international benchmark index for Brent oil rising by 18% to almost $ 139 per barrel in early March 7, the highest level since 2008.
However, Bitcoin’s failure to hedge against continued market volatility has also cast doubt on its safe haven status, as the correlation coefficient with Nasdaq Composite reached 0.87 on Monday.
The weekly BTC / USD price chart shows the correlation with Nasdaq and gold. Source: Trading View
Conversely, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold’s biggest competitor was minus 0.38, which confirms that they have largely moved in opposite directions during the ongoing market turmoil.
On the other hand, the potential for Bitcoin to continue to fall is still high in the midst of the escalating geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the prospect of higher interest rates in March.
However, some technical and serial indicators are flashing higher in the lower timeframe, pointing to the potential for the price to rise to $ 60,000 in the coming months.
Support for a multi-year rising trend line
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s recent fall to multi-year uptrend line support could pave the way for a possible jump to the $ 60,000 resistance level.
A weekly BTC / USD exchange rate chart showing bear markets in technical patterns. Source: Trading View
In particular, BTC trend line support forms a technical pattern called a rising triangle, combined with a horizontal resistance level above. This setup has been in place since December 2020, with the lower level as an accumulation zone and the upper level as a distribution zone for traders.
The number of BTC whales is growing
Elsewhere, cross-chain data provided by CoinMetrics shows that wealthy investors bought bitcoin at about the same level.
For example, the number of bitcoin addresses increased by a minimum of 1000 BTC from 2127 on 27 February to 2266 on 28 February.
Bitcoin addresses with a balance of more than 1K BTC. Source: CoinMetrics, Messari
During the same period, the price of BTC increased from almost $ 38,000 to almost $ 45,000. As of March 6, the number of bitcoin addresses has dropped to 2,263 despite bitcoin falling below $ 38,000, indicating that wealthy investors have decided to keep their bitcoin tokens despite the temporary negative sentiment.
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Johal Miles, an independent market analyst, noted that the $ 33,000 to $ 38,000 range was a “high-volume accumulation zone” for Bitcoin bulls, adding that it would be “difficult” for bears to cross that range.
The direction of the bitcoin flow is correct
Data from the cryptocurrency analysis service Santiment shows that the weekly bitcoin flow from stock exchanges has been positive 81% of the time since October 2021, even though bitcoin trading is close to a low of six months.
“Interestingly enough, in 21 of the last 26 weeks, more BTCs have left exchanges than exchanges,” Sentiment tweeted on March 7, referring to the BTC stock exchange flow chart below.
BTC exchange flow balance. Source: Sentiment
An increase in the influx of bitcoins from stock exchanges indicates that investors want to hold on to them in the long run. Conversely, an increase in the flow of bitcoins to exchanges indicates the intention to exchange bitcoins for other digital assets or fiat currencies.